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Coronavirus Covid-19 will be the worst thing for most folks

If the schools close because of Covid-19 would you criticize grandparents if they refuse to keep their grandchildren so the parents can work?  

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  1. 1. If the schools close because of Covid-19 would you criticize grandparents if they refuse to keep their grandchildren so the parents can work?

    • YES, they've got to keep them if they can despite the risk
      1
    • NO, if the schools close to stop transmission, keeping kids who may have the virus but not show symptoms, could be deadly.
      2


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Coronavirus Covid-19 will be the worst thing for most folks

... Including me.

Personally, I'm 69 Years old and like most folks over 65, this puts me at not just risk, but high risk of dying from this viral infection.  I mean this virus apparently can strike down doctors (like those in China) at the age of 35 and I've seen mortality rates for those over 70 with other underlying complications (heart disease, copd, diabetes, etc.) in the 50-50 range. This virus may well take a lot of us.

The good news is this is a race to keep this virus under control for about another 16 months which is about the earliest one might see a vaccination available at any level of supply.  I.e. if you are an old folk like me, if you can hide from the grim reaper until then, you may get through this crisis.

What is worrisome to me is that this new virus appears to spread like the common cold.

There is a real effort to contain the virus and we should be supportive of those efforts. Still, that is going to be tough because here in the Atlanta area, we're going to feel the economic impacts of this from other locations.  Delta airlines, as we know, has (or at least had) direct flights to China, Italy and South Korea;  which are either highly restricted or cancelled.

While there is no 'community infection' ... i.e. a case of infection that seems to come out of the blue ... the danger is minuscule and most folks will be able to continue with their daily lives much as they are.  

It is recommended that everyone start washing their hands, stop picking their noses and biting their fingernails (not to mention rubbing their eyes).  Indeed, if you wash your hands and only do those things immediately before and after washing your hands (and I mean a good 30 seconds) you'll probably be alright.

When and assuming if we become a hot spot in the next 16 or so months, then we can expect some quite radical changes for a period of time ... you know school closings and possible disruptions of many kinds.

In some ways, some efforts like grocery shopping services, restaurant delivery and the like will probably flourish as engaging the service - especially if we're at greater risk - will lower the individual risk for elderly as avoiding this infection, especially for them, is worthwhile.

Caution is an attitude that can be quite valuable but don't overdue it until being cautious is not overdoing it.

Me, I'm hoping to be lining up for a vaccine sometime in May 2021. Until then, I'm keeping my head down and thinking about how this will impact us.

 Anyway, that's where I am ... So how about you?

 

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When I was researching the above bit, I ran across this World Health Organization page and I present the link.  FYI, this page was part of the opening standup about the virus on the Late Show with Colbert.  It provides some good tips and exposes myths, like rubbing one's body down with alcohol will not cure anyone of the virus.  Of course Colbert turns that into a joke with his taking a shot of whisky as the punchline.

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The reference above of a 50-50 chance is something I saw on one of the news channels and I can't verify its veracity. I do suspect it was mortality for those with underlying health conditions like heart disease, COPD or diabetes.  The chart below sets the mortality by age range which still looks pretty dire for those 70+ ...  particularly on the older end of that scale.

covid129.JPG

The above is an image captured here.

I think it important to note that this is based on early data and while the sample size is pretty large (I understand in the tens of thousands) it is still subject to change for a variety of reasons from seasonality of the malady to relative health of elderly Chinese vs. American's or other nationalities.

I think it also important to know that say the typical seasonal flu that kills about 35,000 people annually and its overall mortality rate is about 0.15 overall while Covid-19 is about 2.0 percent. That would imply that if it spreads and infects as many people as the seasonal flu, the resulting death toll could be over a half-million people if we don't get a handle on this.

Considering how younger people seem to have few symptoms, it is going to be a very BIG challenge to keep this from spreading rapidly everywhere.

 

 

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I would not impose the responsibility  of my children on others.  I guess that is the conservative and take personal responsibility side of me.

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